If you are paying $280 a month to SCE right now, you are using roughly 810 kWh per month at the current Tier 1 rate of 34.5 cents per kWh. That feels painful today. What most people do not do is project that number forward - because once you see it, the PPA math becomes obvious.
Below is the actual year-by-year cost comparison using SCE's historical average rate increase of 7% per year, and a solar PPA starting at approximately $180 per month with a 3.5% annual escalator - the standard contract terms available in Temecula and SW Riverside County today.
The Side-by-Side: $280 SCE Bill vs. Solar PPA (2026-2034)
| Year | SCE Monthly | SCE Annual | PPA Monthly | PPA Annual | Annual Savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $280 | $3,360 | $180 | $2,160 | $1,200 |
| 2027 | $300 | $3,595 | $186 | $2,235 | $1,360 |
| 2028 | $321 | $3,852 | $193 | $2,313 | $1,539 |
| 2029 | $344 | $4,122 | $199 | $2,392 | $1,730 |
| 2030 | $368 | $4,411 | $206 | $2,476 | $1,935 |
| 2031 | $394 | $4,720 | $213 | $2,563 | $2,157 |
| 2032 | $421 | $5,050 | $221 | $2,652 | $2,398 |
| 2033 | $451 | $5,409 | $228 | $2,740 | $2,669 |
| 2034 | $483 | $5,788 | $236 | $2,836 | $2,952 |
| 8-Year Total | $40,307 | $22,367 | $17,940 | ||
SCE projections use 7%/year - the CPUC-authorized average rate through 2028, applied forward. PPA uses 22 cents/kWh starting rate and 3.5%/year escalator. Assumes 810 kWh/month usage. Individual results vary by usage and contract terms.
8-Year Gap: Nearly $18,000
Over the 8-year window from 2026 to 2034, a homeowner on SCE paying $280/mo today will spend approximately $40,307 on electricity. The same home under a solar PPA would spend approximately $22,367 - a difference of $17,940.
That gap grows every year because SCE increases at 7% while the PPA is locked at 3.5%. By 2034, the monthly difference alone is $247 per month.
What Changes This Math
The table above uses one specific set of inputs. Here is what shifts the numbers in either direction:
Your actual usage
Temecula homes typically use between 800 and 1,200 kWh per month. The example above uses 810 kWh, which is the low end. If your home uses 1,100 kWh per month, your SCE bill at 34.5 cents is closer to $380 today - and the 8-year SCE total climbs above $54,000. The PPA scales with your usage too, but the proportional gap stays roughly the same.
Tier 1 vs. Tier 2 rates
The 34.5 cents rate above is SCE's Tier 1 rate. If your usage pushes you into Tier 2, you are paying 41 to 43 cents per kWh on the overage. That makes your true blended rate higher than 34.5 cents, and makes the PPA comparison even more favorable. Check your SCE bill for the rate breakdown - many Temecula homes in summer air conditioning season are partially in Tier 2.
Your PPA starting rate
The $180/mo starting point above is based on a system sized to cover 810 kWh/month at approximately 22 cents per kWh. Your actual PPA rate depends on system size, roof orientation, shading, and which installer you use. Rates between 19 and 25 cents per kWh are typical in this area in 2026. A lower starting rate means larger savings; a higher one means smaller savings but still usually well below the SCE trajectory.
The tax credit picture in 2026
The residential 30% federal solar tax credit (Section 25D) expired December 31, 2025. If you own your system outright or finance it, that credit is no longer available to you as a homeowner. The commercial credit (Section 48E) that PPA providers use to reduce costs is still active through July 4, 2026 - which is why PPA pricing is still competitive now. That window will close. If you are comparing a PPA signed today versus one signed later this year, the rate you are offered may be higher after Section 48E expires.
The Straightforward Version
SCE rates are not going down. They have risen every year for more than a decade and the CPUC has already authorized increases through 2028. A homeowner paying $280 today has no realistic path to a lower SCE bill unless their usage drops significantly.
A solar PPA does not eliminate your electricity cost, but it freezes your starting rate and limits how fast it grows. The 3.5% annual escalator is less than half of SCE's historical rate, which is why the gap between the two lines in the table above widens every single year.
By 2034, a homeowner who stayed on SCE will be paying $483 per month for the same usage they paid $280 for in 2026. A homeowner on a PPA will be paying $236. Both numbers are real - the question is which curve you want to be on.
Get Your Actual Savings Estimate
The table above uses a $280 starting bill. Your home has its own usage, roof angle, and shading - which means your real numbers will be different. We will run the exact calculation for your address and show you what a PPA would cost you month by month, no pressure.
Serving Temecula, Murrieta, Menifee, and SW Riverside County. No hard sell. Just the numbers.