Tax Credit Reality Check — March 2026

The 30% Solar Tax Credit Expired.Here's What Still Matters in 2026.

Section 25D — the residential credit homeowners claimed on purchased systems — ended December 31, 2025. But a commercial credit deadline on July 4, 2026 still affects PPA pricing. Here's the full, honest picture.

March 30, 20266 min read
Section 25D (homeowner purchase credit): Expired Dec 31, 2025
Section 48E (commercial/PPA credit): Safe harbor deadline July 4, 2026

If you've been researching solar in 2026, you've probably seen conflicting information about the federal tax credit. Some sites still reference "30% off your solar system." Others say the credit is gone. Both are partially right — depending on which credit they're talking about.

Here is the straightforward breakdown, specific to Temecula and Riverside County homeowners as of March 2026.

1. What Expired: Section 25D (The Residential Purchase Credit)

The credit most homeowners have heard about is Section 25D — the residential energy tax credit that gave homeowners who purchased their own solar system a 30% credit against their federal taxes. For a $27,000 system, that was $8,100 directly off your tax bill.

Section 25D: Gone as of December 31, 2025

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), signed July 4, 2025, eliminated Section 25D approximately seven years ahead of the original IRA schedule. If you install and own a solar system in 2026 or later, there is no federal residential tax credit available. No phase-down, no partial credit, no transition period — it simply expired.

This changes the economics of buying panels outright significantly. The savings story for purchased systems now must be built entirely on rate comparison, energy independence, and system appreciation — not on a tax credit that no longer exists.

2. What's Still Active: Section 48E (The Commercial Credit)

Section 48E is a different credit entirely — the commercial-side Investment Tax Credit that applies to businesses and organizations that own solar energy systems. This includes companies like Freedom Forever that install and own the systems under lease and PPA agreements.

When Freedom Forever installs a solar PPA system on your roof, they own the panels. Because they own the system, they can claim Section 48E — a 30% commercial credit on the installed cost. That credit is a significant part of why they can offer a PPA rate of 22¢/kWh when SCE charges 34.5¢/kWh. The math only works because of the credit.

How Section 48E reaches PPA customers:
  • 1.Freedom Forever installs and owns the system on your roof.
  • 2.They claim the 30% Section 48E commercial credit on the installed cost.
  • 3.That credit reduces their cost basis, allowing them to offer you a below-market rate.
  • 4.You pay 22¢/kWh instead of SCE's 34.5¢/kWh — the credit is baked into your rate.

Section 48E was not eliminated by the OBBB. But it does have a construction-start safe harbor deadline: July 4, 2026. This is where PPA customers need to pay attention.

3. What the July 4 Deadline Means for PPA Customers

For Freedom Forever to claim the Section 48E commercial credit on a new PPA installation, they need to begin physical construction on that project by July 4, 2026. If they miss that window, projects may not qualify for the credit under the existing rules, and the economics of the PPA change accordingly.

What "beginning construction" means: A July 2025 executive order directed Treasury to narrow this definition. Physical on-site work — not just a signed contract or deposit — is expected to be required. This matters: getting a system under construction requires a signed contract, permitting, and actual installation work to begin before the deadline.
What this means for PPA rates: If Freedom Forever can no longer claim the commercial credit on new projects, their cost basis increases. Higher costs typically translate to higher starting PPA rates for new customers. The 22¢/kWh rate you see quoted today is partly a function of this credit being available.
What this means for the urgency: To get a system under construction before July 4, you need a signed contract well in advance — typically 6–10 weeks before installation begins. Starting in April or May gives you a reasonable margin. Waiting until late June is cutting it close.

This is a real deadline with real economic consequences for PPA pricing — not a manufactured urgency tactic. Consult a tax professional or your sales advisor for specifics on how it affects your situation.

4. The Other Real Urgency: ACC Plus Adders

There is a second, often-overlooked incentive that decreases with every year you wait — and unlike the tax credit discussion, this one applies directly to any NEM 3.0 solar customer, PPA or purchase.

Under NEM 3.0 (California's current net metering rule), the compensation for solar exported back to the grid averaged just 4–8 cents/kWh in 2025 — down from roughly 30 cents/kWh under NEM 2.0. To partially offset this, the CPUC created ACC Plus Adders: bonus export rate credits available to early NEM 3.0 adopters.

ACC Plus Adder Facts:
  • Early NEM 3.0 adopters receive bonus export credits (~4¢/kWh extra) for the first 9 years of system operation
  • These adders decrease by 20% each year through April 2028 — the sooner you install, the higher your adder
  • A 2026 install locks in more adder value per kWh than a 2027 install — over 9 years, the difference is real

The ACC Plus Adder is a legitimate, data-backed incentive that diminishes with time — independent of the tax credit discussion. Most solar advisors are not talking about it because they are still focused on the now-expired residential credit story.

5. Buying Solar Without the Tax Credit: The New Math

If you are considering purchasing a solar system outright in 2026, the economics changed significantly on January 1. Here is the honest comparison:

System Size
Installed Cost
Payback Period (est.)
5 kW
$15,000
8–11 years
7 kW
$21,000
8–11 years
9 kW
$27,000
8–12 years
11 kW
$33,000
9–12 years

Without the credit, payback periods are longer. The PPA route — $0 down, instant monthly savings, no ownership risk — becomes more attractive for a larger share of homeowners than it was in 2023 or 2024.

Neither option is universally right. If you have the capital and tax liability to benefit from ownership, buying still builds long-term equity. If you want immediate savings with no upfront cost or maintenance responsibility, a PPA starts working on day one. The decision depends on your financial situation, roof, and priorities.

6. What Temecula Homeowners Should Do Now

The tax credit landscape changed. The bill rate trajectory did not — SCE has authorized rate increases for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and rates have doubled over the last decade. The case for solar is still strong. The math just works differently now.

1

Get an honest savings estimate

60 seconds

The calculator runs a PPA vs. SCE comparison based on your current bill, SCE's projected rate trajectory, and your city's solar data. No credit math involved — just the rate comparison.

2

Decide: PPA or purchase?

Consultation

Talk through which option fits your situation. This conversation takes 15 minutes and should include real numbers — not assumptions.

3

If going PPA: move before July 4

By April–May

To get a system under construction before the Section 48E safe harbor deadline, allow 6–10 weeks from signed contract to installation start. April or May is a comfortable margin.

A note on tax advice:

This article is general information, not tax advice. The Section 48E rules are evolving, and the specific impact on any individual project depends on factors including Treasury guidance and project-specific details. Consult a CPA or tax professional for advice specific to your situation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is the 30% solar tax credit still available in 2026?

For homeowners purchasing their own system: no. Section 25D (the residential purchase credit) expired December 31, 2025, under the One Big Beautiful Bill. There is no federal residential tax credit for owned solar systems installed in 2026 or later. The 30% commercial credit (Section 48E) still exists for companies that own and operate solar systems under leases and PPAs — but that credit goes to the installer, not the homeowner.

Does the July 4, 2026 deadline affect PPA customers?

Indirectly, yes. The July 4 deadline is the safe harbor cutoff for Section 48E — the commercial credit that PPA providers like Freedom Forever use. If Freedom Forever cannot begin physical construction on your system before July 4, the project may not qualify for the commercial credit under current rules. That credit subsidizes your low PPA rate, so its loss could mean higher starting rates for new customers.

What are ACC Plus Adders and why do they matter?

ACC Plus Adders are bonus export rate credits created by the CPUC to partially offset NEM 3.0's lower compensation rates for solar exported to the grid. Early NEM 3.0 adopters receive these adders for the first 9 years of system operation. The adders decrease 20% per year through April 2028 — meaning a 2026 install locks in higher per-kWh export credits than a 2027 install. They are a legitimate, time-sensitive incentive that most advisors are not talking about.

Why is solar still worth it if the tax credit is gone?

Because the savings story was never primarily about the tax credit — it was about rate comparison. SCE charges 34.5¢/kWh. A solar PPA charges 22¢/kWh. On a $300/month SCE bill, that's roughly $120/month saved from day one with zero money down. SCE has authorized rate increases for 2026, 2027, and 2028. The gap between grid rates and solar rates widens over time, not narrows.

Should I buy or go PPA in 2026?

With Section 25D expired, the purchase case weakened and the PPA case strengthened for most homeowners. If you have capital, no tax liability concerns, and want long-term ownership, buying still builds equity. If you want immediate monthly savings with no upfront cost and no maintenance responsibility, a PPA starts working on day one. Neither is universally better — it depends on your financial situation, roof, and timeline.

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Real Numbers · Temecula Homeowner

$340/mo SCE Bill → $238/mo Solar PPA

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