Should You Wait to Go Solar in 2026? The Real Answer for SCE Customers in Temecula and Murrieta

The Case People Make for Waiting

Homeowners who delay solar usually point to one of these reasons:

• Panel prices keep dropping - I should wait until they bottom out
• Battery technology is improving - I want to wait for the next generation
• SCE rates might settle down or even decrease
• The federal tax credit might get extended or improved
• I want to wait for a better installer or get more quotes

Some of these have merit. Most do not hold up when you run the numbers.

Panel Prices: The "Wait for Cheaper" Math

Solar panel prices dropped roughly 80% between 2010 and 2022. That dramatic decline is over. Panels are now effectively a commodity product manufactured at scale, with margins already thin across the supply chain.

The installed cost of a solar system in 2026 is approximately $2.30-2.50 per watt in Riverside County. That number is not primarily driven by panel cost anymore. The breakdown of a typical installed system looks roughly like this:

If panel prices drop 10% next year - which would be notable given current market conditions - your $23,000 system might cost $22,425. That is $575 in savings. Meanwhile, at a $300 monthly SCE bill, you spent $3,600 on electricity you did not have to.

The break-even on waiting for cheaper panels almost never works out in the homeowner's favor.

SCE Rates Are Not Settling Down

CPUC has approved additional SCE rate cases through 2028, though the exact 2027 amount is not yet public - check SCE's own rate advisory page for confirmed numbers. That follows a string of rate increases over the prior several years driven by wildfire liability, grid hardening costs, and infrastructure upgrades.

Over the last decade, SCE residential rates have increased an average of 5 to 7 percent per year. There is no mechanism - regulatory or market-based - that would cause rates to decrease. Waiting for SCE rates to "settle" means waiting for something that has not happened in over 20 years of rate history.

For the full rate increase history, see our post on SCE rate increases from 2026 to 2028.

The Monthly Cost of Waiting

This is the number most people do not calculate. Every month you delay solar, you pay your full SCE bill. That money does not come back.

The Federal Tax Credit: Already Gone for a Purchase

The Section 25D residential credit, the 30% credit homeowners used to claim on a purchased or financed system, ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. It did not step down gradually; there is no credit left to wait for or lose by waiting.

What this means for the "wait and see" argument: there is no ITC deadline pushing you to act sooner, because the residential credit is already gone. If you go the lease or PPA route instead, the solar company's Section 48E credit funds the rate you are quoted, and that credit requires new projects to be placed in service by December 31, 2027.

For full details on the credit and how to claim it, see our post on the federal solar tax credit and deadlines.

Battery Technology: Good Enough Now

The Tesla Powerwall 3 and Enphase IQ Battery 5P are mature, field-tested products available today. Powerwall 3 stores 13.5 kWh, outputs 11.5 kW continuous, and carries a 10-year warranty covering 70% capacity retention.

Is better battery technology coming? Yes. Solid-state batteries and improved lithium-iron-phosphate chemistry will likely reduce cost per kWh over the next five to ten years. But waiting for a breakthrough that cuts battery prices in half is speculative and could easily take longer than expected.

A practical alternative: go solar now without a battery, and add one later. Most modern solar inverters - including Enphase and SolarEdge - are battery-ready. You get bill savings now and can add storage when prices drop or when your situation changes (electric vehicle, extended outage, HFTD zone designation).

What Actually Makes Sense to Wait For

Waiting is legitimate in a few specific situations:

• You have a roof that needs replacement in the next 1-2 years. Install solar at the same time as the new roof to save on labor.
• You are planning a significant home addition that will substantially increase your square footage and energy usage. Right-size the system to your future load.
• You are planning to sell the home in less than 2 years and are unsure about resale value in your specific neighborhood.
• SGIP battery rebate budget is temporarily exhausted in your area and you specifically need a battery first.

These are real reasons to pause. "Panels might get cheaper" or "rates might come down" are not.

The SGIP Rebate Factor

California's Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) provides $150-200 per kWh for qualifying battery installations. This rebate has a finite budget allocated in annual funding steps. When a step is exhausted, the program closes for new applications until the next allocation.

Waiting on the SGIP specifically can mean waiting longer than expected if a new step has not opened. Check current step availability when you get quotes - this is a real reason to act if step funding is open in your area.

For more on available incentives, see our full breakdown of California solar incentives in 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will solar panels get cheaper if I wait until 2027?

Panel prices have dropped roughly 80% since 2010 and are already near commodity pricing. The remaining cost in a solar installation is mostly labor, permitting, racking, inverters, and electrical work - not the panels themselves. Waiting one year might save 3-5% on equipment. Over a typical system cost, that is $600-1,000 in savings against potentially $3,000-4,000 in unreduced SCE bills during that same period.

Is the 30% federal solar tax credit still available in 2026?

No, not for a homeowner buying or financing a system. The Section 25D residential credit ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. It did not step down gradually; the residential credit is gone outright for a 2026 purchase. If you get solar through a lease or PPA instead, the solar company may still claim a separate commercial credit under Section 48E, priced into your rate rather than something you claim yourself.

Are SCE rates going to come down if I wait?

No. CPUC has approved additional SCE rate cases through 2028, though the exact 2027 amount is not yet public - check SCE's own rate advisory page for confirmed numbers. Over the last decade, SCE residential rates have increased an average of roughly 7% per year (83% from 2015 to 2025, per CPUC data). Rates are not projected to decrease.

Should I wait for better battery technology before going solar?

The Tesla Powerwall 3 and Enphase IQ 5P available today are mature, well-tested products with decade-plus warranties. Battery chemistry is iterating, but waiting for a breakthrough that cuts battery costs in half is speculative. If your main goal is bill reduction rather than backup power, you do not need to wait for a battery at all - you can add one later when your system is already installed.

Does waiting affect my net metering rate?

Not directly - NEM 3.0 is already in effect for new SCE customers. Your export rate of approximately 8 cents per kWh is set at the time of interconnection and locked for 20 years from that date. Waiting does not change which tariff you enter, but every month you wait is a month before you lock in that 20-year rate and start reducing your bill.