If your Southern California Edison bill feels like it goes up every year, it is because it does. SCE residential rates have increased approximately 83% since 2014, from roughly 18.9 cents per kWh to about 34.5 cents per kWh in 2024. The national average sits at roughly 17 cents — meaning SCE customers pay double what most Americans pay for electricity.
But what makes this more than just a complaint is the forward-looking picture. The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has already authorized SCE rate increases extending through 2028. These are not rumors or predictions — they are approved regulatory decisions that will systematically increase your electricity costs over the next several years.
This article explains each mechanism in detail so you understand not just that rates are going up, but why, how much, and what structural forces make it virtually certain they will continue. For a shorter overview, see our SCE rate increase summary page.
1. How CPUC Rate Increases Work
The California Public Utilities Commission is the state agency that regulates investor-owned utilities like SCE. Unlike competitive markets where prices are set by supply and demand, SCE's rates are set through a regulatory process where the utility requests revenue and the CPUC authorizes how much SCE can collect from customers.
This process happens through several parallel mechanisms:
General Rate Case (GRC)
The main proceeding where SCE requests its base revenue requirement for a multi-year cycle (typically 4 years). This covers operating costs, infrastructure investment, and the guaranteed return on capital that goes to SCE's shareholders. The current GRC cycle runs through 2028.
Track 1 and Track 2 Adjustments
Within each GRC cycle, the CPUC splits cost recovery into "tracks." Track 1 typically addresses the first phase of authorized spending, while Track 2 addresses additional or deferred costs. Each track results in a separate rate adjustment.
Special Cost Recovery Proceedings
Separate from the GRC, SCE can file to recover specific costs — wildfire mitigation, wildfire fund contributions, grid hardening, vegetation management, and other extraordinary expenses. These layer on top of GRC-authorized increases.
Escalation Mechanisms
Some cost categories include built-in annual escalators that increase rates automatically without requiring a new CPUC proceeding. Once authorized, these increases happen on schedule.
2. General Rate Cases Explained
SCE's current General Rate Case (GRC) covers the period from approximately 2025 through 2028. During this proceeding, SCE requested billions in revenue to cover:
- Grid hardening and undergrounding power lines in high-fire-risk areas
- Infrastructure upgrades for aging transmission and distribution systems
- Wildfire prevention programs including vegetation management
- Technology upgrades including grid modernization and smart meters
- Operating costs including labor, materials, and administrative expenses
- The guaranteed rate of return on capital investment (shareholder profit)
An important structural detail: SCE's parent company, Edison International, is publicly traded and pays dividends to shareholders. The CPUC's cost-of-service model guarantees SCE a rate of return on capital investment — typically around 10%. This means every dollar SCE invests in infrastructure generates roughly 10 cents in annual profit for shareholders. The incentive structure encourages capital spending, which in turn drives rate increases. There is no market force pushing SCE to find cheaper solutions.
3. Track 1: The 2026 Increase
Projected residential rate: approximately 40 cents per kWh
The Track 1 decision authorizes SCE to begin recovering the first phase of costs approved in the current GRC. This includes the initial tranche of infrastructure investment, wildfire mitigation spending, and updated base revenue requirements.
For the average Temecula homeowner using 1,000 kWh per month, a 7-9% increase on a $345 bill means an additional $24 to $31 per month — or roughly $290 to $370 more per year. This is just the Track 1 component. Wildfire surcharges and other cost recovery proceedings may add further increases on top.
The Track 1 increase does not require customer approval or a vote. It was authorized through the CPUC regulatory process and takes effect on schedule.
4. Track 2: The 2027 Increase
Projected residential rate: approximately 43 cents per kWh or higher
Track 2 layers additional authorized costs on top of the Track 1 increase. This phase typically includes deferred capital projects, updated cost estimates for programs that came in above initial projections, and any incremental spending the CPUC authorized but did not include in Track 1.
Simultaneously, California's Wildfire Fund contributions escalate. The Wildfire Fund was created by AB 1054 to provide a shared liability pool for utility-caused wildfires. SCE's contributions to this fund increase over time and are passed through to ratepayers as a line item on your bill.
Combined, the Track 2 adjustment and wildfire fund escalation are expected to push average residential rates above 43 cents per kWh. For a 1,000 kWh/month household, monthly bills could reach $430 or more — an increase of roughly $85 per month compared to early 2026 rates.
5. Wildfire Costs and Surcharges
Wildfire-related costs deserve their own section because they represent one of the largest and fastest-growing components of SCE rate increases. These costs come from multiple sources:
Wildfire Mitigation Plan (WMP)
SCE files an annual Wildfire Mitigation Plan with the CPUC detailing how it will reduce fire risk. The plan includes covered conductor installation, undergrounding, sectionalizing devices, weather stations, and vegetation management. Costs run into the billions over the GRC cycle.
Wildfire Fund (AB 1054)
SCE contributes to a shared wildfire liability fund. Annual contributions escalate and are recovered through ratepayer surcharges. The fund covers damages from utility-caused wildfires above the utility's self-insurance layer.
Wildfire Insurance
SCE purchases commercial wildfire insurance, and premiums have skyrocketed as fire risk has increased. These insurance costs are passed through to ratepayers.
Past Wildfire Liability
SCE is still recovering costs related to the 2017-2018 Thomas Fire and Woolsey Fire events. Edison International was fined $550 million by the CPUC and faced billions in total liability. Recovery of these costs is spread across ratepayers over time.
The critical point: wildfire costs are structural and increasing. As California's fire seasons lengthen and intensify, the costs of prevention, insurance, and liability recovery all grow. There is no mechanism to reduce these costs — they can only go up. And every dollar is passed through to your bill.
6. 2028 and Beyond
Projected residential rate: approximately 46 cents per kWh or higher
The current GRC cycle concludes around 2028, at which point SCE will file a new General Rate Case for the next multi-year period. Historical pattern: every new GRC has resulted in higher authorized base rates than the previous one. There is no precedent for a GRC that reduced rates.
By 2028, if rates follow the CPUC-authorized trajectory, the average SCE residential rate could reach 46 cents per kWh or higher. That would put a 1,000 kWh/month household at roughly $460 per month — nearly $5,500 per year in electricity costs alone.
Beyond 2028, the structural forces driving rate increases — wildfire costs, infrastructure investment, the guaranteed rate of return model — remain in place. There is no regulatory reform on the horizon that would change this trajectory. The CPUC's own projections show continued rate growth extending well into the 2030s.
7. The Full Rate Timeline (2020-2028)
Here is the complete picture of SCE residential rate changes, including actual rates through 2024 and CPUC-authorized projections through 2028:
Two things stand out in this timeline. First, the rate of increase has accelerated — the 2022-2023 period saw a combined 30% increase in just two years. Second, the projected increases through 2028 are not speculative. They are based on CPUC-authorized proceedings that have already been decided.
If you are a visual person, the simple math tells the story: SCE rates have gone from about 22 cents in 2020 to a projected 46 cents in 2028 — more than doubling in just 8 years. During that same period, the national average rate has grown from about 13 cents to about 19 cents.
8. What You Can Do About It
You cannot vote on SCE's rate increases. You cannot switch to a different utility company. And energy conservation, while worthwhile, only reduces the volume of electricity you buy — not the price per unit. The per-kWh rate still goes up every year regardless of how little you use.
The most effective option for most SCE homeowners is to generate your own electricity through solar. Specifically, a solar Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) offers the most direct hedge against rate increases because:
- Your rate escalator is capped at 3.5% per year — less than half of SCE's historical average
- Zero upfront cost — no cash out of pocket, no loan payments
- Savings start from month one — your PPA rate is lower than your current SCE rate
- 25-year production guarantee — backed in writing by Freedom Forever
For a detailed comparison of PPAs versus buying solar outright, read our PPA vs buying panels guide. To see what the savings look like specifically for Temecula, check our Temecula solar savings breakdown.
One important timing note: the federal commercial tax credit (Section 48E) that makes today's PPA rates possible requires construction to begin by July 4, 2026. After that deadline, PPA starting rates will likely be higher because the installer loses the tax credit benefit. This is a real federal deadline, not a sales tactic. If you are considering solar, the math favors acting before the deadline rather than after. Use our savings calculator to see your personalized numbers.