Helping Riverside County homeowners navigate SCE rates and solar options since 2020
If your SCE bill feels like it keeps going up no matter what you do, you are not wrong. SCE has changed rates multiple times since 2020, with more increases than decreases (see SCE's own rate advisory archive for confirmed effective dates). SCE's rate has risen approximately 83% from 2015 to 2025, per CPUC data.
This article documents that record, explains what drives SCE rate cases, looks at where rates may be headed, and shows how a solar PPA can start you at an example rate near 22 cents per kWh (ask your installer for your actual quoted rate).
1. SCE Rate History Since 2016
The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) authorizes every rate change SCE makes. Increases go through a formal General Rate Case (GRC) process, though emergency and wildfire-related surcharges can move faster. Here is the rate trajectory for SCE residential customers over the past decade.
The 2016-2024 figures above are estimates, not individually confirmed against SCE's own advisory archive - use them for the overall shape of the trend, not as exact history. What is confirmed: SCE's residential rate rose roughly 83% from January 2015 to April 2025 (CPUC Public Advocates Office), and the current rate is 34.5 cents/kWh per SCE's advisory effective October 1, 2026. See SCE's own rate advisory archive for confirmed year-by-year figures.
2. What Drives SCE Rate Increases
SCE's rate advisory archive shows several rate changes through 2025 and into 2026 - see SCE's own rate advisory page for confirmed effective dates and amounts. SCE's current average residential rate is 34.5 cents/kWh, per its advisory effective October 1, 2026.
- -CPUC-authorized wildfire mitigation infrastructure costs passed to ratepayers
- -Grid hardening investments from the 2022-2024 GRC cycle came due simultaneously
- -Transmission system upgrade costs flowing through from federal infrastructure programs
SCE's advisory effective June 1, 2026 brought the average residential rate down slightly, from 34.5 to 34.4 cents per kWh, and its advisory effective October 1, 2026 moved it back up to 34.5 cents per kWh. Both are minor adjustments, not a reversal of the multi-year upward trend.
The 34.5 cent rate is the current average. It does not include time-of-use surcharges, minimum delivery charges, or tiered usage penalties for high-usage households. Actual effective rates for many Temecula homes run higher.
3. What You Pay Per kWh Right Now
SCE's average residential rate is 34.5 cents per kWh (October 1, 2026 advisory). But what you actually pay depends on your rate plan and usage tier.
The 34.5 cent figure is an average across customers and plans. Your own rate depends on your plan and the hour: on TOU-D-4-9PM a summer weekday evening costs 59 cents per kWh while off-peak costs 33 cents, and on the tiered plan usage above baseline costs 39 cents.
4. Where SCE Rates Are Headed by 2031
SCE rate increases have averaged approximately 7% per year compounding since 2016. If that trend continues at the same pace, the math is straightforward.
- 2026 (today): 34.5 cents/kWh - Current average
- 2027: 36.9 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate - not yet published by CPUC
- 2028: 39.5 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate - not yet published by CPUC
- 2029: 42.3 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate
- 2030: 45.2 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate
- 2031: 48.4 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate
At 48 cents per kWh in 2031, a household using 900 kWh per month would pay $432 every month just for electricity. That is $5,184 per year.
CPUC has approved additional SCE rate cases through 2028 as part of the current General Rate Case cycle, but the exact dollar or percentage amount for 2027 and 2028 is not yet public. The table above is a projection at SCE's historical trend rate, not a confirmed CPUC figure - actual rates could move faster or slower depending on wildfire liability costs and grid investment needs. Check SCE's own rate advisory page for the current confirmed number.
5. How a PPA Locks You Out of Future Increases
A Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) is a contract where a solar company installs panels on your roof at no cost, then sells you the electricity those panels generate at a fixed rate. Today, that rate is an example rate near 22 cents per kWh (ask your installer for your actual quoted rate).
That rate does not change when CPUC approves the next SCE increase. It does not change when wildfire surcharges get added. It does not change during peak summer months. You locked in an example rate near 22 cents per kWh (ask your installer for your actual quoted rate) and that is what you pay for solar-generated electricity regardless of what SCE does.
The Rate Gap Over Time
The gap between your PPA's locked rate and SCE's market rate widens every year. That growing gap is your compounding annual savings.
For the portion of your electricity that your solar system generates, you pay 22 cents instead of whatever SCE charges that month. The typical Temecula home with an 8.5 kW system offsets 90-100% of usage for 8 months of the year and a lower percentage in peak summer.
Over a 25-year PPA the comparison that matters is the contract's total of all payments, including its escalator, against what your own SCE bills would add up to. Ask the installer for both in writing.
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Frequently Asked Questions
SCE has changed residential rates multiple times since 2020, with more increases than decreases; see SCE's own rate advisory archive for confirmed effective dates and amounts.
SCE's average residential rate is 34.5 cents per kWh (October 1, 2026 advisory). On SCE's tiered plan, Tier 1 (up to your baseline allocation) is 30 cents per kWh and Tier 2 is 39 cents per kWh. On TOU-D-4-9PM, summer weekday on-peak is 59 cents per kWh (SCE's rate pages, checked October 7, 2026).
SCE rate cases generally bundle costs including wildfire mitigation infrastructure, grid hardening investments, and transmission upgrades, which are passed through to ratepayers as authorized by state law and CPUC decisions.
Based on the historical trend of approximately 7% per year, the expectation is yes, though the exact 2027/2028 amounts are not yet published by CPUC (check SCE's own rate advisory page for the current confirmed number). At the current trend rate, SCE reaches approximately 48 cents per kWh by 2031. That is a projection, not a guarantee, but the structural drivers - wildfire liability, grid investment, and electrification buildout - have not changed.
A Power Purchase Agreement locks your rate for solar-generated electricity at an example rate near 22 cents per kWh (ask your installer for your actual quoted rate) for the duration of the agreement (typically 20-25 years). SCE rate increases do not affect your PPA rate. As SCE rates rise, the gap between what you would have paid and what you actually pay widens each year, increasing your cumulative savings.