If your SCE bill feels like it keeps going up no matter what you do, you are not wrong. SCE has raised residential rates 14 times since 2020. Four small reductions in that same window did not come close to offsetting the increases. The cumulative effect is an average monthly bill that is roughly $80 higher today than it was five years ago.
This article documents that record, explains the October 2025 increase that shocked most customers, projects where rates are headed, and shows how a solar PPA at 22 cents per kWh protects you from all of it.
1. SCE Rate History Since 2016
The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) authorizes every rate change SCE makes. Increases go through a formal General Rate Case (GRC) process, though emergency and wildfire-related surcharges can move faster. Here is the rate trajectory for SCE residential customers over the past decade.
From 2016 to 2026, the SCE residential rate nearly doubled. The biggest single jump happened in October 2025, and the rate has not fully retreated from that level.
2. The October 2025 Rate Increase Explained
In October 2025, SCE raised rates from 31.2 cents to 35.3 cents per kWh. That is a 12.9% increase in a single billing cycle. For a household using 900 kWh per month, that translated to an overnight bill increase of about $37 per month, or $444 per year.
- -CPUC-authorized wildfire mitigation infrastructure costs passed to ratepayers
- -Grid hardening investments from the 2022-2024 GRC cycle came due simultaneously
- -Transmission system upgrade costs flowing through from federal infrastructure programs
A January 2026 CPUC revision brought the rate back slightly to 34.5 cents per kWh. That adjustment reflected a temporary fuel cost credit, not a reversal of the structural increases.
The 34.5 cent rate is the current baseline. It does not include time-of-use surcharges, minimum delivery charges, or tiered usage penalties for high-usage households. Actual effective rates for many Temecula homes run higher.
3. What You Pay Per kWh Right Now
As of April 2026, the SCE residential base rate is 34.5 cents per kWh. But what you actually pay depends on your rate plan and usage tier.
The stated 34.5 cent rate is the floor, not the ceiling. Households that run AC during California summers regularly see effective rates above 40 cents per kWh when Tier 2 usage and TOU peak periods overlap.
4. Where SCE Rates Are Headed by 2031
SCE rate increases have averaged approximately 7% per year compounding since 2016. If that trend continues at the same pace, the math is straightforward.
- 2026 (today): 34.5 cents/kWh - Current baseline
- 2027: 36.9 cents/kWh - +7% from 2026
- 2028: 39.5 cents/kWh - CPUC has authorized increases through this year
- 2029: 42.3 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate
- 2030: 45.2 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate
- 2031: 48.4 cents/kWh - Projection at trend rate
At 48 cents per kWh in 2031, a household using 900 kWh per month would pay $432 every month just for electricity. That is $5,184 per year.
CPUC has formally authorized further rate increases through 2028 as part of the current General Rate Case cycle. The 2027 and 2028 increases are not projections - they are already approved. The projection above is conservative: actual rates could move faster if wildfire liability costs or grid investment needs accelerate.
5. How a PPA Locks You Out of Future Increases
A Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) is a contract where a solar company installs panels on your roof at no cost, then sells you the electricity those panels generate at a fixed rate. Today, that rate is approximately 22 cents per kWh.
That rate does not change when CPUC approves the next SCE increase. It does not change when wildfire surcharges get added. It does not change during peak summer months. You locked in 22 cents per kWh and that is what you pay for solar-generated electricity regardless of what SCE does.
The Rate Gap Over Time
The gap between your locked PPA rate and SCE's market rate widens every year. That growing gap is your compounding annual savings.
For the portion of your electricity that your solar system generates, you pay 22 cents instead of whatever SCE charges that month. The typical Temecula home with an 8.5 kW system offsets 90-100% of usage for 8 months of the year and a lower percentage in peak summer.
Over a 25-year PPA, at the historical rate of SCE increases, the average Temecula household saves between $65,000 and $85,000 on electricity compared to staying on the SCE grid.
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Frequently Asked Questions
SCE has raised residential rates 14 times since 2020 and reduced them 4 times. The net change is a significant upward shift. The October 2025 increase of 12.9% was the largest single adjustment in the period and moved rates from 31.2 cents to 35.3 cents per kWh overnight.
The SCE residential base rate as of April 2026 is approximately 34.5 cents per kWh. This is the Tier 1 rate. Customers who exceed their baseline allocation pay a higher Tier 2 rate of approximately 41-43 cents per kWh. TOU-D plan peak hours can reach 49 cents per kWh.
The 12.9% October 2025 increase resulted from CPUC approving bundled costs including wildfire mitigation infrastructure, grid hardening investments from the 2022-2024 General Rate Case, and transmission upgrade costs. These costs were passed directly to ratepayers as authorized by state law.
Based on the historical trend of approximately 7% per year and CPUC-authorized increases already approved through 2028, the expectation is yes. At the current trend rate, SCE reaches approximately 48 cents per kWh by 2031. That is a projection, not a guarantee, but the structural drivers - wildfire liability, grid investment, and electrification buildout - have not changed.
A Power Purchase Agreement locks your rate for solar-generated electricity at approximately 22 cents per kWh for the duration of the agreement (typically 20-25 years). SCE rate increases do not affect your PPA rate. As SCE rates rise, the gap between what you would have paid and what you actually pay widens each year, increasing your cumulative savings.