Helping Riverside County homeowners navigate SCE rates and solar options since 2020
Every year, Temecula homeowners on SCE pay more for the same kilowatt-hours. It is not your appliances, it is not your habits. It is a decade of compounding rate increases authorized by the California Public Utilities Commission. The trajectory from 2015 to today is not subtle: rates have nearly doubled in ten years.
This article documents the full record, explains the two biggest structural shifts in that window, and builds a plain-numbers model of what waiting to go solar actually costs. Every forward estimate below is built from SCE's confirmed current rate and its historical trend, not from unconfirmed guesses.
1. SCE Rate History: 2015 to 2025
The table below shows SCE residential base rates at key points over the past decade. These figures reflect the Tier 1 base rate for residential customers. Tier 2 usage, TOU peak charges, and wildfire surcharges run higher in every row.
The year-by-year figures above are an illustrative reconstruction, not individually confirmed against SCE's own advisory archive - use them for the overall shape of the trend, not as exact history. What is confirmed: SCE's rate rose approximately 83% from January 2015 to April 2025 (CPUC Public Advocates Office data), and SCE's June 1, 2026 advisory was a slight decrease (34.5 to 34.4 cents/kWh) and its most recent advisory, effective October 1, 2026, was a slight increase back to 34.5 cents/kWh - rates do not move only in one direction, even though the multi-year trend has been upward.
Individual years have varied, with some single-year jumps in the low double digits driven by wildfire fund surcharges and grid infrastructure costs (see SCE's own rate advisory archive for confirmed year-by-year figures). No single-year decrease has offset a significant portion of the decade's overall increase.
2. The April 2023 Rate Restructuring
April 2023 was not a simple rate increase. CPUC approved a structural redesign of how SCE prices electricity for residential customers. The two most significant changes were the elimination of the legacy tiered rate structure and the introduction of higher baseline allocations that still resulted in net higher costs for most Inland Empire households.
- -The Tier 1 rate for baseline usage increased approximately 9.5% in a single adjustment, from 26.4 cents to 28.9 cents per kWh
- -Tier 2 pricing was recalibrated upward to approximately 34-36 cents for above-baseline usage, up from 29-31 cents
- -The restructuring reduced subsidy cross-flows between customer classes, meaning residential customers absorbed more of the utility infrastructure cost directly
- -For Temecula households using 900-1,200 kWh per month (typical with central AC), the April 2023 change added an estimated $22-31 per month immediately
The 2023 restructuring also set the stage for NEM 3.0 policy changes that took effect the same month, significantly reducing the credit solar customers receive for exporting excess power to the grid. These two simultaneous changes accelerated the financial case for solar with battery storage over solar-only systems.
3. The Fixed Monthly Charge Proposal
In addition to per-kWh rate increases, CPUC has been evaluating a fixed monthly infrastructure charge for all residential utility customers. The proposal discussed through 2024 and 2025 would add a base monthly charge of $24 per month for income-qualified customers and $77 per month for standard-rate customers, regardless of how much electricity they use.
- Low-usage households hit hardest. A household using only 400 kWh per month currently pays about $138. The fixed charge alone would add $77, a 56% increase before touching the per-kWh rate.
- Solar customers would still pay the fixed charge. If approved, even homes with solar panels would owe the monthly infrastructure fee, reducing but not eliminating the benefit of going solar. Battery-paired systems that minimize grid draws would be least affected.
- Timeline: The fixed charge has not yet been finalized as of May 2026. CPUC extended review through 2025 and further proceedings are ongoing. It remains a real risk for 2026-2027 implementation.
The fixed charge proposal reflects a utility argument that per-kWh pricing alone does not cover the full cost of maintaining the grid. Whether or not you use grid power heavily, the grid must be maintained. The proposal moves some of that cost into a flat monthly fee that would be paid regardless of usage or solar status.
4. What a Temecula Bill Looked Like in 2015, 2020, and 2025
To make the rate history concrete, here is what the same Temecula household would have paid at three points in time. This household uses 1,000 kWh per month in a non-summer month and 1,400 kWh in July and August, which is typical for a 1,900 square foot home with a pool.
The table above is an illustrative reconstruction of SCE's rate trend from public CPUC data, not a line-by-line reproduction of SCE's own rate advisory archive. For any specific year's exact rate, check SCE's own rate advisory page. The verified, current figure is 34.5 cents/kWh, per SCE's advisory effective October 1, 2026 - the most recent one published as of this check.
SCE's rate rose approximately 83% from January 2015 to April 2025 (CPUC Public Advocates Office data). That is a historical figure, not a forecast of what comes next.
5. California Rate Forecast Through 2030
CPUC has approved additional SCE rate cases through 2028, but the exact dollar or percentage amount for 2027 and 2028 is not yet public. The figures below, including 2027 and 2028, are projections built on the 10-year average annual rate of change (approximately 7%) applied forward to today's confirmed 34.5 cents/kWh - not confirmed CPUC numbers. Check SCE's own rate advisory page for the current confirmed rate.
At 45.2 cents per kWh in 2030, that same Temecula household from the example above would pay an estimated $5,876 per year in electricity - up from $2,226 in 2015. That is a 164% increase in 15 years.
The California Energy Commission has separately projected that statewide residential electricity costs will increase 40% or more from 2022 to 2030, driven by grid decarbonization, electrification mandates, and wildfire hardening investment. SCE rate history over the past decade runs slightly faster than that projection.
6. The Real Cost of Waiting 2-3 Years to Go Solar
The most common response to a solar quote is "I want to think about it." Sometimes that means a week. Sometimes it means two years. The rate history above makes it possible to calculate exactly what those two years cost.
Assume a Temecula household with an annual SCE bill of $4,200 in 2026 goes solar with a PPA at an example rate near 22 cents per kWh (ask your installer for your actual quoted rate). Their solar bill covers approximately 85% of usage. Their remaining SCE charges drop to roughly $630 per year. Annual electricity cost under solar: $4,008 (PPA) + $630 (SCE residual) = $4,638 at today's rates, but the PPA rate stays flat while SCE continues climbing.
Model: Going Solar Now vs. Waiting 2 Years
The $3,985 figure above is a trend projection, not a confirmed CPUC number for 2027 and 2028 - those exact amounts are not yet public. It applies the 7% historical trend without further adjustment. If the 2028-2030 trajectory matches historical pace, the three-year gap between going solar now and waiting could rise toward $5,200.
Waiting also means the PPA rate available in 2028 may be different from today's an example rate near 22 cents per kWh (ask your installer for your actual quoted rate). Solar equipment prices have trended down, but PPA rates reflect installer margins and financing costs that do not always track panel hardware prices. A customer who locks in today at 22 cents has a known cost basis. A customer who waits takes the rate available in the market at that time.
How Rate Increases Accelerate Solar Payback
Solar savings are calculated against the rate you avoid paying. When the rate you avoid grows every year, your effective savings grow every year even if your solar system produces exactly the same energy. At 34.5 cents per kWh avoided, an 8 kW system in Temecula generating 12,000 kWh annually saves approximately $4,140 per year. At 45.2 cents avoided in 2030 (a trend projection, not a confirmed rate), that same system would save approximately $5,424 per year.
This is what "rate increase accelerates payback" means in practice. The system does not get faster - the savings denominator gets larger as the utility rate climbs. Homeowners who installed solar in 2021 are experiencing this now: their system generates the same energy it always did, but the annual savings versus SCE are materially larger than when they signed the contract.
Get Your Numbers Before the 2027 Rate Increase
Use the calculator to see your estimated savings at current and projected SCE rates. Or call to get a custom quote for your Temecula home.
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Frequently Asked Questions
SCE's rate rose approximately 83% from January 2015 to April 2025 (CPUC Public Advocates Office data), and its current average residential rate is 34.5 cents/kWh per its October 1, 2026 rate advisory. Individual years have varied; see SCE's own rate advisory archive for confirmed year-by-year figures.
The April 2023 restructuring raised the Tier 1 base rate from 26.4 cents to 28.9 cents per kWh (a 9.5% increase in one adjustment) and recalibrated Tier 2 pricing upward. It also aligned with NEM 3.0 changes that reduced export credits for solar customers. For Temecula households using 900-1,200 kWh per month, the restructuring added an estimated $22-31 per month immediately.
CPUC has been reviewing a proposal to add a fixed monthly infrastructure charge of $24 per month for income-qualified customers and $77 per month for standard-rate residential customers, regardless of electricity usage. This charge would apply even to solar customers connected to the grid. As of May 2026, the proposal has not been finalized but remains under active CPUC review for potential 2026-2027 implementation.
CPUC has approved additional SCE rate cases through 2028, but the exact by-year amounts for 2027 and 2028 are not yet public. Applying the 10-year historical average rate of increase (approximately 7%/yr) to today's confirmed 34.5 cents, the projection is approximately 36.9 cents per kWh in 2027, 39.5 cents in 2028, and 45.2 cents in 2030. These are trend projections, not confirmed CPUC numbers - check SCE's own rate advisory page for the current confirmed rate.
Based on a household with an annual SCE bill of $4,200 in 2026, waiting until 2028 to go solar could cost approximately $3,985 more in electricity bills compared to going solar in 2026. That estimate uses SCE's confirmed current rate plus a 7%/yr historical-trend projection for 2027 and 2028 (exact CPUC amounts for those years are not yet public) and does not account for the compounding advantage that widens further in years 4 through 25 of a PPA agreement.
Solar savings are calculated against the utility rate you avoid paying. When SCE raises rates, the value of each kilowatt-hour your solar system produces increases proportionally. An 8 kW system generating 12,000 kWh annually saves approximately $4,140 per year at today's 34.5 cent SCE rate. At a projected 2030 rate of approximately 45.2 cents (trend estimate, not a confirmed CPUC figure), the same system would save approximately $5,424 per year - roughly a $1,284 increase in annual savings with no change to the system or the PPA rate.